For months, French politics has existed in an unstable equilibrium, with President Emmanuel Macron’s minority government teetering precariously but managing to survive. The collapse of Sebastien Lecornu’s administration has shattered this fragile balance, pushing the country into a new and far more chaotic phase.
The unstable equilibrium was maintained by a delicate balance of threats and temporary alliances. The government could pass some legislation, but only with great difficulty. The opposition could obstruct, but had not yet gone for an all-out effort to topple the government from day one.
The announcement of Lecornu’s cabinet was the event that broke this equilibrium. It was seen as such a provocation by the opposition that they abandoned their previous strategy of piecemeal resistance in favor of a full-scale assault. Their immediate and total rejection of the government’s legitimacy was a move that fundamentally changed the game.
The result is that the system has been thrown out of balance. The previous state of tense but manageable gridlock has been replaced by open political warfare and governmental paralysis. The resignation of the Prime Minister is the clearest sign that the old equilibrium is gone.
France is now in a state of disequilibrium, and no one knows where the new balance point will be found. It could lead to new elections, a new cross-party coalition, or simply a prolonged period of ungovernable chaos. The one certainty is that the fragile stability of the past is over.