The United States is at risk of inflicting a major wound on its own economy through its restrictive immigration policies, a new global report has warned. The analysis highlights this domestic policy choice as a significant threat to both US and global growth, contributing to an overall “dim” outlook.
The report, from a highly respected international institution, provides a stark quantitative estimate: the US crackdown on immigration could reduce the nation’s GDP by between 0.3% and 0.7%. This represents a substantial, self-inflicted blow to the world’s largest economy.
The damage is not limited to headline growth. The report also predicts that the policy will cause “stronger inflationary pressures” in specific, labor-intensive sectors like construction, hospitality, and agriculture. This could create a painful stagflationary environment of slower growth and higher prices in parts of the US economy.
This specific warning about US policy is part of a broader, cautious assessment of the world economy. While the global 2025 growth forecast was revised up to 3.2% due to “unexpected resilience,” the institution sees significant risks on the horizon, including the delayed impact of trade tariffs and the potential for a “correction” in “stretched” stock markets.
The focus on the US immigration stance is a clear signal that major economies’ domestic choices have powerful international repercussions. In this case, the report suggests that a key engine of the global economy is choosing to put a brake on its own potential.